It is a balanced profile and inside day today after a failed trend-up day previously.
Important reference zones from today’s profile -
• Secured Low = 22076
• Value = 22096(VAL) — 22115(POC) — 22185(VAH)
• Two days composite value = 22100(VAL) — 22145(POC) — 22200(VAH)
• Closing HVN = 22225
In the previous report, it was mentioned that after a failed trend-up day profile, the odds are in favor of some balancing auction and then a slow skew higher. Today’s inside-day auction suggests that a slow skew higher is now in progress. Volumes improved today but are still on the lower side, at about 79% of ten-day average volumes.
Buyers were able to defend the previous session buying tail zone, and they managed to capture the previous session POC as well. Overlapping lower value today, and it is now two days (Feb 19–20) of composite balance. All in all advantage buyers.
The last two days of the composite profile have a poor value area [Pic 2], and today’s close is above that composite VAH zone. So buyers next need to extend above the 22240–250 zone early in the session, and once it is above 22250, it should never come back below the 22210–190 zone, otherwise there are high odds of another overlapping profile. That overlap profile could get choppy auction between 22110–22190 zone roughly to create a three-day Gaussian bell balance composite profile and after such a bell balance composite value, it could see a directional trending move.
So as long as 22110 holds, buyers will largely remain in control of the auction and if they sustain below 22110 odds for the test at swing support zone 22010–21980. Swing long negation is now at 21960, as any rotation below that swing support zone could get liquidation towards 21920 / 21880. Scaling below this 21880 sellers can take control of the auction, which could see much lower levels; low odds for such an auction as of now.
